European Union
Eurostat flash estimate of 2 October: annual inflation rose from 3.2 percent in August, with energy up 18.8 percent (14.3 percent in August), services 3.2 percent, food, alcohol and tobacco 1.4 percent and non-energy industrial goods 1.1 percent. Prices rose 0.6 percent on the month. Among the largest economies, the flash rates were 3.3 percent in Germany, 3.4 percent in France and 5.0 percent in Spain.
Eurostat
Eurostat release of 1 October: the euro-area rate was unchanged from July and up from 6.3 percent a year earlier; the EU rate was 6.1 percent, up from 6.0 percent. Some 13.6 million people were unemployed in the EU, 348,000 more than in August 2025. Youth unemployment was 15.4 percent in the EU and 15.0 percent in the euro area.
Eurostat
All 27 countries submitted their last Recovery and Resilience Facility requests by the 30 September deadline, the Commission said on 1 October; together the requests now cover the full €360 billion in grants and €213 billion in loans. In September alone it received 21 final requests worth €105.4 billion, covering 1,539 milestones and targets. €450 billion of the €573 billion envelope has been paid so far. Preliminary assessments are due by 20 November, and every payment must be made by 31 December 2026.
European Commission
Disbursement of 2 October, the eighth under the Ukraine Facility, which follows reforms in sectors including the judiciary, financial markets, energy and agriculture. It includes, for the first time, €800 million from the additional €8.35 billion provided under the Ukraine Support Loan for 2026. Total support under the Ukraine Plan now exceeds €32 billion, almost 70 percent of the money currently available under the Facility's first pillar.
European Commission
Presented on 29 September in response to this summer's crisis in Ceuta, although illegal crossings are at their lowest since 2021. The plan covers cooperation with partner countries, stronger external borders, early warning, smuggling networks and returns. It includes work on a European Emergency Response Framework for engineered or weaponised mass movements, a proposal to strengthen Frontex's mandate with a reinforced Standing Corps and social-media monitoring, and a call on the Council to adopt sanctions against migrant smugglers.
European Commission
Decision of 28 September on the first European Defence Projects of Common Interest, which can now move towards funding: the Commission has set aside €325 million for them under the €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme. The projects cover drones and counter-drone systems, maritime and seabed defence, space, air and missile defence, and security on the EU's Eastern Flank. They are meant for capabilities too large or complex for any one country to develop alone, in line with NATO priorities.
European Commission
Proposal of 30 September for an EU Critical Communication System, so that police, firefighters, medical teams and civil protection can talk to each other across services and borders; today their systems are not connected and stop working at the border. Member states would gradually move from narrowband radio to broadband such as 5G, with EU satellites as back-up when land networks fail, for example in a blackout. Critical components would be built by European companies.
European Commission
Eurobarometer survey published on 30 September as European Cybersecurity Month began. Phishing was the most common threat (39 percent), followed by attempts to steal personal data (18 percent), malware (17 percent), password theft (16 percent) and AI-generated scams (15 percent). While 83 percent call the consequences of cyberattacks serious, only 48 percent say they could recognise an AI-generated fake video, and just 54 percent check the sender before opening links.
European Commission
Coordinated EU action by the Consumer Protection Cooperation Network, launched on 30 September. Companies are expected to show the real-world price of in-game items and currencies, avoid multiple currencies that hide costs, not push players to buy more virtual currency than they need, inform them of the 14-day right of withdrawal (including for unused currency) and protect vulnerable players such as children. The network also adopted a joint statement on gamers' rights.
European Commission
Announced on 26 September in New York at the close of the UN General Assembly's high-level week, as part of Global Citizen's 2026 campaign. The package includes €380 million in migration-related financing for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026, among it €240 million for a migrant protection, return and reintegration programme, €252 million from the Emergency Aid Reserve (pending budget approval), €7.5 million for the Ebola response in DR Congo and €10 million for peace efforts in the Great Lakes region.
European Commission
World
A US official told Al Jazeera (report of 2 October) that the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group had left San Diego, followed by the Makin Island group carrying more than 2,000 Marines; by the end of November three carriers and two amphibious groups will be positioned around Iran. The build-up adds F-35s and thousands of troops to the roughly 50,000 US service members already in the region and, according to Pentagon and White House sources, will not be withdrawn even if a deal with Tehran is reached.
Al Jazeera
Speaking at the Valdai forum in Moscow on 1 October, Vladimir Putin called “ridiculous” Kyiv's offer to stop hitting Russian refineries if Moscow stopped attacking Ukraine's energy grid, an offer Volodymyr Zelenskyy made after meeting Donald Trump on 22 September. Putin said the refinery strikes had cost Russia 1 percent of GDP and that Russia was responding in kind; he also said he would use nuclear weapons if necessary to defend the Kaliningrad exclave. A Russian drone hit a school in Kyiv the same day; no one was hurt.
Al Jazeera
Aleksandar Vučić, barred from a third presidential term, stepped down on 27 September to lead his Serbian Progressive Party in a snap parliamentary election, facing the strongest challenge to his rule in more than a decade. Speaker Ana Brnabić becomes acting president. The vote follows nearly two years of student-led protests that began after a railway-station canopy collapse in Novi Sad killed 16 people in November 2024; the students run as “Students Win”. Vučić's last acts included pardoning 23 people convicted over the protests.
Al Jazeera
On 1 October Ethiopia said it would close its embassy in Asmara and gave ten Eritrean diplomats, including the chargé d'affaires, 48 hours to leave, accusing Eritrea of “acts of hostility and belligerence”. Eritrea answered by severing all diplomatic ties and accused Addis Ababa of seeking access to the Red Sea by force. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the TPLF-led alliance that has been fighting federal troops since late September.
Al Jazeera
Government figures of 2 October put the toll at 4,018 deaths and 8,300 confirmed cases across seven provinces. The UN reported that a camp housing a transit centre for patients near Bunia, in Ituri province, had been burned by soldiers searching for weapons, forcing 19,000 people to flee. Remoteness, armed conflict near the borders with South Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda, and distrust of health workers are hampering the response.
Al Jazeera / UN
King Mohammed VI appointed Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri, 50, mayor of Marrakesh and urban planning minister, on 29 September and asked her to form a government; she is the third woman to lead a government in the Arab world. Her Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) won 97 of the 395 seats in the House of Representatives, well short of the 198 needed for a majority, so her first task is building a coalition.
Al Jazeera
The Pentagon confirmed on 30 September that the remaining US and coalition forces had left Erbil airbase in the Kurdistan region, ending a 12-year campaign that spokesman Sean Parnell said had defeated ISIL as an organised military threat. Security becomes an Iraqi-led effort backed by a bilateral relationship. US forces had peaked at about 170,000 in 2007, left in 2011 and returned in 2014.
Al Jazeera
On its 14th full-scale launch, on 28 September from Texas, the uncrewed spacecraft circled the Earth six times at 275 kilometres over almost ten hours before splashing down in the Pacific near Chile, despite one engine shutting down early. It carried 26 of the latest Starlink satellites. Starship, the largest rocket ever built, is meant to carry NASA missions to the Moon.
Al Jazeera
Announced at the White House on 29 September. Under the Joint Commitment on Frontier Responsibilities, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta, xAI and Nvidia pledge “robust” controls to monitor their AI models, internal teams to check those controls work, independent external auditors and regular meetings to set safety standards. The accord is not binding and does not say who will carry out the audits; it says it “may make sense” to write the measures into law later. Trump said he favours “tremendous self-regulation”.
Al Jazeera
Vote of 29 September; China, Russia and Pakistan abstained, questioning the force's effectiveness. Unlike the earlier Kenyan-led mission, the force can act with Haiti's military or on its own. US ambassador Mike Waltz said about 1,500 troops are in Haiti, with 4,000 more expected in the coming months; the force is at about 30 percent of its planned size, and much of Port-au-Prince remains under gang control.
Al Jazeera / UN
Germany
Destatis flash estimate no. 348 of 30 September: consumer prices were 3.3 percent higher than a year earlier, up from 2.9 percent in August, and 0.6 percent higher than in August. Energy prices rose 14.9 percent on the year, accelerating again from 10.5 percent in August and 8.3 percent in July. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held at 2.4 percent. The harmonised index (HICP) also stood at 3.3 percent. All figures are provisional.
Destatis
Destatis release no. 344 of 30 September: import prices in August were 8.3 percent higher than a year earlier and 1.0 percent higher than in July. Imported energy cost 43.0 percent more, with electricity up 63.9 percent, mineral oil products 63.3 percent and natural gas 41.9 percent; Destatis attributes the energy surge to the war in the Middle East. Intermediate goods rose 11.0 percent. Export prices were up 4.7 percent, the largest increase since February 2023.
Destatis
Destatis release no. 347 of 30 September: about 45.41 million people resident in Germany were in work, 29,000 fewer than in July after seasonal adjustment and 235,000 (0.5 percent) fewer than a year earlier, continuing a year-on-year decline seen since January 2025. The labour force survey counted 1.86 million unemployed, 120,000 more than in August 2025. Adjusted for seasonal and irregular effects, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0 percent.
Destatis
The ifo Employment Barometer rose to 95.1 points in September from 94.8 in August (release of 28 September). “Although the labor market is stabilizing, there is still no real recovery in sight. In manufacturing and trade, jobs are still being cut,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, ifo's head of surveys. Most manufacturers still plan to reduce staff, with hiring only in food and in data-processing and electronic equipment. In services, layoff and hiring plans balance out; construction expects stable headcounts.
ifo Institute
ifo price expectations rose to 22.7 points in September from 21.4 (release of 30 September). Energy-intensive manufacturers jumped to 24.8 from 19.5 and retail and wholesale trade to 35.6 from 30.0, while service providers eased to 19.8 from 20.9. “Fuel and heating oil have already become noticeably more expensive, and energy providers are likely to raise electricity and gas prices this winter,” said Timo Wollmershäuser, ifo's head of forecasts.
ifo Institute
ifo release of 1 October: the business climate in the electrical equipment industry rose to 24.8 points in September from 16.5, and the assessment of current business to 29.0 from 15.0. New orders rose markedly and companies plan to expand production and expect stronger exports. About 40 percent report shortages of intermediate goods, and more firms plan price increases. “The electrical equipment industry is increasingly becoming the economic locomotive of German industry,” said Klaus Wohlrabe.
ifo Institute
ifo release of 2 October: the index rose to +5.5 points in September from -2.6 in August; the assessment of current business reached +8.8 and expectations jumped from -15.0 to +2.3. Exports, manufacturing orders and defence and infrastructure spending drive the recovery, but order backlogs remain very low and companies plan further job cuts. “The recovery is fragile, as the improved price competitiveness is based on temporary factors, including production losses and supply chain disruptions in the Gulf region,” said ifo's Anna Wolf.
ifo Institute
Defence Minister Boris Pistorius ordered the new regiment on 2 October: up to 600 soldiers operating aerial and land-based unmanned systems at ranges of up to 500 kilometres, with an electromagnetic warfare company and loitering munitions. It is expected to join the 10th Armoured Division, which includes the 45 Armoured Brigade stationed in Lithuania. “Anyone wishing to prevail on land must master the use of unmanned systems,” Pistorius said.
deutschland.de / dpa
Reported on 1 October, a year after the business initiative was launched by founding members including Siemens and Deutsche Bank. It now counts 147 companies and investors, and more than 200 billion euros were invested in 2025 alone. Chancellor Friedrich Merz met the group in Berlin with Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and Economy Minister Katherina Reiche. Siemens CEO Roland Busch called for faster reforms, particularly on the use of industrial AI.
deutschland.de / dpa
Reported on 30 September: ten German start-ups reached a valuation of one billion euros or more by September, the most since 2021, bringing the total to 39, driven by artificial intelligence and defence. Start-ups raised about 8 billion euros by late September, already more than the 7.5 billion euros of all of 2025, and the year could reach 12 billion euros. Recent newcomers include Osapiens, Neura Robotics and Stark Defense.
deutschland.de / dpa
Brazil
Pnad Contínua divulgada pelo IBGE em 29 de setembro: a taxa ficou em 5,3% no trimestre encerrado em agosto, a menor para o período desde o início da série, em 2012, contra 5,6% no trimestre até maio e no mesmo período de 2025. A população ocupada chegou ao recorde de 103,5 milhões (mais 774 mil em três meses), e os empregados com carteira assinada no setor privado, a 39,5 milhões, também recorde. Os desocupados somaram 5,8 milhões, 281 mil a menos que no trimestre de março a maio.
IBGE / Agência Brasil
Dados do Ministério do Trabalho de 29 de setembro: 165.827 postos com carteira assinada, saldo 183,1% maior que o de julho (58.568) e 7,2% acima de agosto de 2025, embora seja o segundo pior agosto desde 2020, quando a metodologia mudou. De janeiro a agosto foram 1.134.033 vagas, queda de 25,2% frente às 1.516.881 do mesmo período do ano passado. Os cinco setores criaram empregos no mês, com destaque para serviços (+110.346) e construção civil (+20.848).
Ministério do Trabalho / Agência Brasil
Resultado divulgado pelo Tesouro Nacional em 29 de setembro, abaixo do déficit de R$ 15,5 bilhões de agosto de 2025 e dos R$ 16 bilhões esperados pelo mercado. Descontada a inflação, a receita líquida cresceu 3,5% e as despesas, 1,9%. Tesouro e Banco Central tiveram superávit de R$ 5 bilhões, e a Previdência, déficit de R$ 18,6 bilhões. No acumulado do ano, o déficit primário chega a R$ 94,9 bilhões, contra R$ 85,9 bilhões de janeiro a agosto de 2025.
Tesouro Nacional / Agência Brasil
Pesquisa Industrial Mensal do IBGE, 2 de outubro. Depois de alta de 0,1% em julho e de quedas de 1% em maio e 1,6% em junho, a indústria acumula perda de 3,1% em quatro meses. Frente a agosto de 2025, o recuo é de 1,2%; no ano, a produção ainda sobe 0,8%. Dezesseis dos 25 ramos caíram, com destaque para produtos do fumo (-23,4%) e farmacêuticos (-5,5%). O pesquisador André Macedo atribui a perda de dinamismo aos juros elevados, que pesam no endividamento de famílias e empresas.
IBGE / Agência Brasil
Estatísticas do setor externo do Banco Central, 28 de setembro: o déficit em transações correntes superou os US$ 3,8 bilhões de agosto de 2025, apesar da melhora da balança comercial, por causa de gastos maiores com serviços e de remessas de lucros e dividendos. A balança teve superávit de US$ 6,6 bilhões, com exportações de US$ 33,3 bilhões (+12,1%) e importações de US$ 26,7 bilhões (+9,4%). Em 12 meses, o déficit chega a US$ 63 bilhões, 2,47% do PIB.
Banco Central / Agência Brasil
Desde 1º de outubro, uma sobretaxa de 55% se soma à tarifa regular de 12%, porque o Brasil esgotou a cota anual de 1,106 milhão de toneladas fixada por Pequim para 2026. A cota de 2027 sobe para 1,128 milhão de toneladas, mas o setor estima que ela se esgote em março ou abril. A China é o principal destino da carne bovina brasileira, e o Brasil responde por mais de 40% das importações chinesas; a Abiec estima que as exportações totais do produto recuem cerca de 10% em 2026.
Agência Brasil
Em 30 de setembro, à margem da reunião de ministros de Comércio do G20 em Milwaukee (EUA), o comissário europeu Maroš Šefčovič disse aos ministros Mauro Vieira e Márcio Elias Rosa que os embarques, suspensos desde 3 de setembro, poderão ser retomados no curto prazo, citando o resultado positivo de uma auditoria recente no Brasil. A decisão final cabe ao Comitê Permanente de Plantas, Animais, Alimentos e Rações da Comissão Europeia, que se reúne em 20 e 21 de outubro.
Itamaraty / MDIC / Agência Brasil
Anunciado em 30 de setembro, depois de reunião de Mauro Vieira e Márcio Elias Rosa com o representante comercial dos Estados Unidos, Jamieson Greer, também em Milwaukee. O grupo será um canal específico para discutir as tarifas aplicadas por Washington a produtos brasileiros e outros obstáculos comerciais. Segundo o MDIC, o governo norte-americano deve enviar nas próximas semanas uma proposta de escopo das negociações, com questões tarifárias e não tarifárias.
MDIC / Agência Brasil
Anúncio de 2 de outubro. O poço 1-BRSA-1405-APS fica a 175 quilômetros da costa do Amapá, na bacia da Foz do Amazonas, em lâmina d’água de 2.886 metros; a primeira descoberta no mesmo poço foi em meados de agosto. Depois dela, a perfuração seguiu para avaliar intervalos mais profundos, e o novo achado foi identificado por perfis elétricos, indícios em rocha e amostras de fluidos. A Margem Equatorial é vista como a nova fronteira exploratória do país.
Petrobras / Agência Brasil
Balanço dos ministros Dario Durigan (Fazenda) e Wellington César Lima e Silva (Justiça) em 2 de outubro: o dinheiro mantido pelos apostadores nas plataformas caiu 31% desde 26 de setembro, de cerca de R$ 2,1 bilhões para R$ 1,453 bilhão, ainda distribuído em contas de 28,65 milhões de CPFs. O fluxo de mais de R$ 600 milhões por dia foi praticamente interrompido. O saque pode ser pedido até as 23h59 de 5 de outubro; a devolução do restante pelos bancos ocorre entre 9 e 14 de outubro. Quarenta e oito contas com mais de R$ 500 mil serão analisadas uma a uma.
Ministério da Fazenda / Agência Brasil